A substantial 37% surge in the market cost of rice has left the staple food in short supply, intensifying concerns over the widening annual supply gap. The AFEX Wet Season Crop Production Report for 2023 reveals that the availability drop has resulted in a staggering two million metric tonnes increase in the supply deficit each year.
The report states, “Rice consumption in Nigeria has been steadily increasing, nearly matching the annual population growth projection of 2.6 per cent at two per cent. This has led to a supply gap of about 2 million metric tonnes annually.”
Nigeria, once Africa’s top rice producer in 2021, with an output of 8.3 million metric tons, now faces challenges due to surging consumption rates. Despite potential net rice export capabilities, the country has spent over $15 billion in the past decade to meet its escalating rice consumption.
The Rice Outlook report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts Nigeria’s importation of 2.1 million metric tons of rice in 2024, potentially making the nation the world’s leading rice buyer. This follows the recent decision by the Federal Government to lift the ban on rice importation.
While the ban was in place, imports plummeted by 98.4% between January and July 2022. The increase in rice prices is attributed to production setbacks caused by flooding and the repercussions of global market dynamics.
Factors contributing to the global rice price surge include India’s ban on rice exports, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, and potential production impact from El Nino in key regions. Rain-induced disruptions and quality variations during Vietnam’s summer-autumn harvest have further fueled the price hike. The report anticipates a 4% increase in rice production with an additional 32% rise in the price of paddy rice.
